D. Nikolaenko, V. Triukhan, V. Nikitina, M. Romanchouk

Research Institute of Geodesy and Cartography, Kyiv, Ukraine


The dynamics of HIV/AIDS epidemical growth rates in different areas is a difficult scientific issue. There are many versions of epidemical growth dynamics, which can be determined empirically. It is possible and necessary to make a typology of territories and its cartographic description. Growth rates of epidemiological parameters are quite stable. They also correspond to stages in the evolution of HIV/AIDS diffusion.


Space – Time modeling and forecasting of the process of epidemical diffusion should be based not only on a particular research technique, related to information processing, but also on empirical research characteristic of the epidemical process. An example of such an empirical law is the ratio between absolute and relative parameters of HIV/AIDS diffusion. It can be determined as a rule of Growth Quantity Equalization (GQE). This ratio is based on the number of new cases of HIV/AIDS registration in a given area, and the total number of infected people, to new cases and the absolute parameters of the spread of HIV/AIDS in the country (area) as a whole.


For example, 900,930 AIDS cases have been reported in the USA. Of these, 757,588 (84% of those with known residence) were reported in major metropolitan areas. For Florida the GQE is determined as follows.


Area of residence

2003 cases of AIDS

Cumulative total of AIDS

GQE – AIDS (%)







Total, all metropolitan areas with 500,000 or more population





The GQE method is fully applicable for analyses of separate settlements, irrespective of population number and number of infected people. It is necessary to record data for a full period of HIV/AIDS diffusion. This is important in order to understand both acceleration and delays in new AIDS cases. There are various types of socio-cultural environments and as a result, various versions of epidemical dynamics.

Using analysis based on the GQE method, it is necessary to conduct precise spatial aggregation of data. The GQE method combines well with analysis into the socio-cultural foundations of HIV/AIDS diffusion. Using the GQE method, it is possible to achieve a more accurate space – time analysis of HIV/AIDS diffusion, whilst also taking into account the local socio-cultural space - time expression of HIV/AIDS diffusion. In order to explain epidemic diffusion, we must reach a spatial level of local communities.