Global Road-Networks in the Mid-20th Century: What Historical Transport Maps Tell us about Statehood and Conflict
ISBN 978-85-88783-11-9
Authors
1Fuhrer, R.; 2Hunziker, P.
1ETH ZURICH Email: raphael.fuhrer@ivt.baug.ethz.ch
2ETH ZURICH Email: hunziker@icr.gess.ethz.ch
Abstract
In spatial science, reliable and useful time series data is scarce. Nonetheless, it is irreplaceable for many researchers and decision makers. By tracing data, models and knowledge back, the established theory can be tested against reality along a substantial amount of time. The aimed insights, research findings or decisions become more fundamental and robust. In this conference contribution, we make use of a recently produced data set on global road-networks in the mid-20th century to explore the relationship between accessibility and state building processes. In particular, we address two main research questions: 1. How does state reach, modeled by accessibility, influence the formation of nation states? 2. How does state reach, modeled by accessibility, affect the occurrence of violent intrastate conflicts? In a first step, we briefly discuss the newly produced road-network data, which is digitized from a series of 1:1mio topographic maps compiled by the US Army Map Service (AMS). Further, we discuss the concept of accessibility, its relation to state-building processes, and how we estimate accessibility in the mid-20th century using the newly introduced historical road-network data. In the remainder of this paper, this historical accessibility metric is then used in combination with other spatial historical data from maps and geographic information systems to address the research questions in quantitative case studies of a number of African and Southeast Asian countries. To address the first research question, we calculate accessibility values on the municipal level for Nigeria, using the newly available road-network data, as well as meta data from the original AMS maps and historical statistics. We then compare the historical accessibility data with a similar measure compiled from contemporary sources. Overall, we identify substantial travel time reductions of up to 80%, indicating that the Nigerian state has invested heavily in transport infrastructure since the 1950s. However, we find interesting divergent regional patterns for this trend that can be linked to a number of challenges to the Nigerian state in its recent history: the secession of Biafra circa 1970, oil extraction in the Niger Delta, and to the current presence of Boko Haram insurgency. To address the second research question, we analyze the effect of rural accessibility in the 1950s on the outbreak of secessionist challenges to state power in the subsequent decades for a number of African and Southeast Asian countries. We find that regions where the rural population was only badly connected to the central state around 1950 were substantially more likely to engage in separatist conflict. Thus, these findings support the hypothesis that state reach depends on state infrastructure to sustain political stability. To summarize, this paper discusses the use of transport networks extracted from historical maps to analyze processes of state formation and intrastate conflicts.
Keywords
Historical road-networks; Accessibility; State building and conflict