CIRCUITS, ROUTES AND NETWORKS: PROPOSAL OF SPATIAL ANALYSIS FOR THEFT AND ROBBERY OF VEHICLE IN THE STATE OF RIO DE JANEIRO
ISBN 978-85-88783-11-9
Authors
1Gonçalves, L.; 2Ferreira, M.
1INSTITUTO DE SEGURANÇA PÚBLICA (ISP-RJ) Email: lucianolimageo@gmail.com
2INSTITUTO DE SEGURANÇA PÚBLICA (ISP-RJ) Email: mjmarcus@ig.com.br
Abstract
Events related to robbery and theft of vehicles constitute a pervasive problem in large Brazilian cities, especially in Rio de Janeiro, where it was verified, since the second half of 2011, a significant increase in the number of cases. This has generated a growing concern within the public safety framework and demands the adoption of specific measures. This problem requires coordinated strategies that include the production of relevant information, and consistent integrated actions by the civil and military police and other public security agencies. Starting from the access to data produced by different institutions (such as PCERJ, PMERJ, CET-RIO, among others), the Institute of Public Security (ISP-RJ) has been proposing an approach to the topic, using different methods and techniques, which includes statistical monitoring (graphical monitoring) and spatial analysis with the use of network operators in geographic information systems environment. This paper proposes a spatial-temporal approach of events of robbery and theft of vehicles, and sought infer the main routes, networks and circuits of the subtracted vehicles in different areas of the state of Rio de Janeiro, especially in the metropolitan region. This information is of great interest for the prevention and repression of robbery or theft of vehicles because it establishes a notion of which route would be more frequently used by the criminal after subtracting a vehicle, supporting the investigation of crimes, the planning of action's tactics and allowing the improvement of street policing practices. One way to estimate this route consists of linking the subtraction point with another location where the vehicle has been spotted, considering different time intervals between the time of the robbery or theft and a second location. Through the use of graphs, links are created between the points of occurrences related to a subtracted vehicle by introducing perspectives of orientation and direction to reproduce possible paths on urban thoroughfares used by criminals who drive the subtracted vehicles. Many of these vehicles are either recovered after being abandoned or are identified in one of the many OCRs scattered across the capital. In both cases, it is possible to define at least two relative positions, namely the terminal locations of a displacement, out of which a route will be estimated. This route corresponds to the shortest path between two points, given the layout of the mesh parks. If there are three or more known positions (including the recovery site) during the period in which a vehicle was in possession of criminals, it is possible to estimate these circuits with greater accuracy. The techniques used include nested geocoding, density estimators and connectivity analysis as well as topology operators (spatial operators). Together with the mapping of routes, the vertical and horizontal densities, as well as some patterns of routes dispersion and convergence were analyzed. The vertical density ( consists in the quantification of overlapping in each stretch of route, from which it was possible to define classes of streets with the highest rates of estimated circulation of stolen vehicles. The horizontal densities correspond to areas with intense interlacement of routes, ie zones of high capillary movement of subtracted vehicles. The dispersion and convergence patterns consist in analyzing the connectivity between areas of highest estimated robbery and theft density along with the recovery areas density and aim to identify the prevailing interactions between these two areas, which may be useful to associate such events with of other types of crimes.
Keywords
Estimated routes; Network Analysis; Vehicle Robbery