Spatial Analysis of Forced Internal Displacement in Colombia because of Internal Armed Conflict
ISBN 978-85-88783-11-9
Authors
2Ramirez, K.; 2Zhang, X.
2UNIVERSITY OF SAO PAULO Email: karol.ramirez@usp.br
2UNOCHA COLOMBIA Email: zhang17@un.org
Abstract
Internal displacement in Colombia, understood as migrations of civilian population from the countryside to the cities caused by the actions of violence that Colombian armed groups inflict in this population, is today one of the largest humanitarian crises in the country. Since 1985, at least five million people have been forcibly displaced from their place of origin, almost 15% of the total population of Colombia today (according to Government of Colombia), positioning the country in the second-largest number of people in this condition after Sudan. According Shultz et al., (2004), the displacement trajectory for displaced person in Colombia proceeds through a sequence of stages as threats and vulnerabilities that leads to expulsion and forced migration. However, few characterization studies in Colombia have analyzed the spatial relationship between violence and forced displacement, therefore, this project seeks to bridge that gap with the spatial analysis of forced displacement in Colombia, addressing the characterization of the phenomenon and the cartographic representation of their territorial dynamics. In this paper we show some partial results of the research. To explain the space-time evolution of the forced internal displacement in Colombia, we developed a spatial econometric model to established correlations between armed conflict and forced displacement, based on some variables to measure presence of armed groups as attacks on civil population according to the International Humanitarian Law (IHL) definition. To analyze the spatial characteristics in the model, we based on idea that every event or incident of forced displacement occurs in a definite place and at a given time (geographic property). Historically, Colombian armed groups have been located on strategic corridors, well be for extraction of resources or illicit activities like coca planting, this modeling describe therefore, how the space and determined conditions lead to armed groups to force displacements in certain areas of the country (such as the geographical features of the land, military objectives or geopolitical targets, etc). In this spatial analysis we use cartographic representations of the dynamics of armed conflict and its regional spread and the main flow of the displacements in the country. Karol Ramirez, student of Master in Human Geography at Faculty of Philosophy, Languages, Literature, and Human Sciences (FFLCH) of the University of São Paulo. Xitong Zhang, data management assistant, UNOCHA Colombia