Cartographic Modelling of Climate Change Using Long-term Meteorological Observations Affected by Land Cover Alternations
ISBN 978-85-88783-11-9
Authors
1Bac-bronowicz, J.; 2Grzepowski, P.; 3Becek, K.
1WROCLAW UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY Email: joanna.bac-bronowicz@pwr.edu.pl
2WROCLAW UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY
3WROCLAW UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY Email: kazimierz.becek@pwr.edu.pl
Abstract
Our knowledge on climate and its variability is derived from long-term meteorological observations conducted using dedicated facilities – meteorological stations. A number of meteorological parameters are recorded at various intervals ranging from a minute to a day. These data are mainly used for producing weather forecast as well as for climate modelling. Therefore, it is imperative to maintain the highest possible accuracy, precision and reliability of these data to make sure that the fidelity of climate models is at least maintained if not improved. Many countries across the world maintain a network of meteorological stations for many years; in some instances for at least a century. Such a long-term commitment for some number of stations cannot be maintained, because of adverse factors including a demand to convert station site into something else (industrial facility, mining project, a communication route, artificial lake, etc). Discontinuation of time series of meteorological observations has a certain adverse impact on the climate model parameters. In our contribution, we are focussing on an assessment of the impact of land cover changes in the vicinity of meteorological stations on the observations performed on the station. Using long-term time series of meteorological observations in Poland, land cover change records and the cartographic modelling principles and techniques, we are trying to visualise and quantify the impact of local land cover changes and other adverse factors on reliability of meteorological observations and climate models. Unfortunately, a question of how these changes are reflected in regional and global-scale climate and climate-change models remains unanswered.